Olympique de MarseilleReal Sociedad · Loan · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 36% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    7 Aug
  2. Talks
    7 Aug
  3. Agreement
    7 Aug
  4. Medical
  5. Done

Catch me up

  1. 7 Augfirst@FabrizioRomano: Real Sociedad reach verbal agreement to sign Nayef Aguerd from OM on loan with €4m fee plus €11m buy option.
  2. 13 AugReached Medical
  3. 13 AugCooling@MatteMoretto: esNayef Aguerd failed his medical and will not play for Real Sociedad
  4. 13 AugJoined by @MatteMoretto

What was actually said

3 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto

esNayef Aguerd failed his medical and will not play for Real Sociedad

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75claims MedicalView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano1mo agono effect

    🚨⚠️ Nayef Aguerd to Real Sociedad, deal off after he completed medical tests at the club. https://t.co/meUNFDuE2P

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 60%claims AgreementView on X ↗

Why it read 36% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+40
MatteMoretto coolingBroke ittrust 0.75, 94% faded
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−4
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
36%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

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108 recomputations 47 points over the trail
  1. 3622d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  2. 923d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  3. +328d agono new post; decay or a rival moving