Olympique de Marseille → Real Sociedad · Loan · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 36% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    7 Aug
  2. Talks
    7 Aug
  3. Agreement
    7 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 7 Augfirst@FabrizioRomano: Real Sociedad reach verbal agreement to sign Nayef Aguerd from OM on loan with €4m fee plus €11m buy option.
  2. 13 AugReached Medical
  3. 13 AugCooling@MatteMoretto: esNayef Aguerd failed his medical and will not play for Real Sociedad
  4. 13 AugJoined by @MatteMoretto

What was actually said

3 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto

esNayef Aguerd failed his medical and will not play for Real Sociedad

Nayef Aguerd no supera la revisión médica y no jugará en la Real Sociedad. https://t.co/IJ1DzIHC7b

claims Medical−1 pointView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano3mo ago ↗

    🚨⚠️ Nayef Aguerd to Real Sociedad, deal off after he completed medical tests at the club. https://t.co/meUNFDuE2P

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

🚨🔵⚪️ Real Sociedad reach verbal agreement to sign Nayef Aguerd from OM, here we go! Initial loan worth €4m fee plus €11m buy option clause for Moroccan defender. Aguerd only wanted Real Sociedad, as @Santi_J_FM reported. https://t.co/TThWG8SEAP

claims AgreementView on X ↗

Why it read 36% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+40
Matteo Moretto coolingBroke ittrust 0.75, 94% faded
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−4
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
36%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Aug: +3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug: −9 points, after @FabrizioRomano, @FabrizioRomano29 Aug: −36 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting15 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
108 recomputations▼ 47 points over the trail
  1. −362mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −92mo ago@FabrizioRomano: Real Sociedad reach verbal agreement to sign Nayef Aguerd from OM on loan with €4m fee plus €11m buy option. · @FabrizioRomano: Deal off after Nayef Aguerd completed medical tests at Real Sociedad
  3. +32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting