Sources
Every rumour is weighted by how often its sources have been right. That is measured from deals that settled. A source needs 50 settled calls before it gets a score.
Scored over Summer 2026. The current window is left out until it closes, because the deals that fell through have not settled yet.
Leaderboard
| Source | Tier | Resolved | Hit rate | Brier | Measured trust | vs. tier | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florian Plettenberg @Plettigoal · Journalist | T2 | 263 | 88% | 0.068 | 86% | ▲ 31 vs tier 2 |
| 2 | Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano · Journalist | T1 | 498 | 86% | 0.089 | 82% | ▲ 7 vs tier 1 |
| 3 | Ben Jacobs @JacobsBen · Journalist | T2 | 331 | 85% | 0.098 | 80% | ▲ 25 vs tier 2 |
| 4 | David Ornstein @David_Ornstein · Journalist | T1 | 99 | 82% | 0.100 | 80% | ▲ 5 vs tier 1 |
| 5 | Gianluca Di Marzio @DiMarzio · Journalist | T2 | 450 | 79% | 0.126 | 75% | ▲ 20 vs tier 2 |
| 6 | Matteo Moretto @MatteMoretto · Journalist | T1 | 232 | 76% | 0.130 | 74% | as assigned |
| 7 | TEAMtalk @TEAMtalk · Aggregator | T3 | 368 | 53% | 0.238 | 52% | ▲ 12 vs tier 3 |
| 8 | Mirror Football @MirrorFootball · Aggregator · no longer tracked | T4 | 83 | 63% | 0.279 | 44% | ▲ 24 vs tier 4 |
| — | Fabrice Hawkins @FabriceHawkins · Journalist | T2 | 44of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
| — | Christian Falk @cfbayern · Journalist | T2 | 0of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
| — | Kerry Hau @kerry_hau · Journalist | T2 | 0of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
| — | Mario Cortegana @MarioCortegana · Journalist | T2 | 0of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
| — | Toni Juanmartí @tjuanmarti · Journalist | T2 | 0of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
| — | CaughtOffside @caughtoffside · Aggregator | T3 | 0of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
| — | Football Insider @footyinsider247 · Aggregator | T3 | 0of 50 | — | — | not yet measured | — |
Hit rate counts advancing reports on deals that happened, plus denials on deals that did not. Calling a deal off counts the same as calling it on. Brier also rewards being confident when right, and it is what the odds use.
How often the site’s own numbers came true is on the window’s record.
Scores come from public posts and public outcomes. They rate a set of reports, not the person who wrote them.
One known problem: a loan can show as no transfer when squad data lists the parent club. That gives the reporter a miss they did not earn, and it hits whoever covers loans most. We check and correct these after each window closes, so read a figure as a floor, not a verdict.