Aston Villa → Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 40% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    14 Aug
  2. Talks
    14 Aug
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

❌ Bayer Leverkusen will NOT sell Jarell Quansah to Arsenal 🚨 However, a deal to sign Aston Villa's Ezri Konsa is '99% done' according to a report Full details 📎 https://t.co/E98jctXeG2

claims Agreement+2 pointsView on X ↗

Why it read 40% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+62
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.40, 84% faded
+2
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−24
Completion probability
40%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457516 Aug: −58 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting16 Aug: +57 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting23 Aug: −29 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination15 Aug16 Aug28 Aug
37 recomputations▼ 31 points over the trail
  1. −583mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. +573mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −292mo agonews on a rival destination