Arsenal → Real Madrid · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 12% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    —
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
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  5. Done
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Catch me up

  1. 11 Julfirst@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid have no plans to sign Martin Zubimendi from Arsenal
  2. 9 AugJoined by @MirrorFootball
  3. 16 AugAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid have reignited their interest in Arsenal's Martin Zubimendi, with the player receptive

What was actually said

5 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

🇪🇸 Real Madrid have reignited their interest in Arsenal star Martin Zubimendi, and the Spain star is all ears 😲 @GraemeBailey ✍️ | #RMCF #AFC https://t.co/lAT1wdcRF2

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Denied outright

Denial2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 4mo ago

🔴 Arsenal fans can relax - Jose Mourinho does NOT want to sign Martin Zubimendi for Real Madrid #AFC #RMCF https://t.co/QrxvRbkUv8

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    Real Madrid have NO plans to sign Martin Zubimendi from Arsenal #rmcf #afc https://t.co/sjVVGKb638

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@MirrorFootball had it first, 3mo ago

🔴 Real Madrid linked with Arsenal midfielder Martin Zubimendi... again #MUFC https://t.co/pRvISZZ1Zv

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Chelsea and Real Madrid eye Martin Zubimendi as Arsenal set price after Bruno Guimaraes transfer https://t.co/ta4kyYwFdi

Why it read 12% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
5 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting16 Aug23 Aug2 Sept
84 recomputations▼ 6 points over the trail
  1. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting