ArsenalReal Madrid · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 12% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
  2. Talks
  3. Agreement
  4. Medical
  5. Done

Catch me up

  1. 11 Julfirst@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid have no plans to sign Martin Zubimendi from Arsenal
  2. 9 AugJoined by @MirrorFootball
  3. 16 AugAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid have reignited their interest in Arsenal's Martin Zubimendi, with the player receptive

What was actually said

5 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

Denied outright

Denial2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 2mo ago
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.40counted at 60%claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo agono effect

    Real Madrid have NO plans to sign Martin Zubimendi from Arsenal #rmcf #afc https://t.co/sjVVGKb638

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@MirrorFootball had it first, 1mo ago
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.40counted at 36%claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @MirrorFootball1mo agono effect

    Chelsea and Real Madrid eye Martin Zubimendi as Arsenal set price after Bruno Guimaraes transfer https://t.co/ta4kyYwFdi

Why it read 12% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
5 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457516 Aug: 17%16 Aug: 17%16 Aug: 17%16 Aug: 17%23 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 14%23 Aug: 14%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%28 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 13%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%1 Sept: 12%1 Sept: 12%2 Sept: 12%23 Aug: −3 points, with no new post16 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
84 recomputations 6 points over the trail
  1. 325d agono new post; decay or a rival moving