Bayern Munich → Benfica · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 2mo ago
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    18 Jul
  2. Talks
    18 Jul
  3. Agreement
    20 Aug
  4. Medical
    20 Aug
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 18 Julfirst@Plettigoal: SL Benfica are among the most concrete options for João Palhinha, though no agreement has been reached yet.
  2. 15 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano
  3. 20 AugReached Agreement
  4. 20 AugReached Medical

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported at medical stage

Advancingone report

🚨💥 Joao Palhinha to SL Benfica - DONE DEAL ✔️ Full agreement reached with FC Bayern. Permanent transfer. Fee: up to €20m. If the most realistic bonuses are triggered, the package will reach €18-19m. Green light for medical. And green light from Palhinha following https://t.co/E1IdgQRsRg

claims Medical+4 pointsView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨🇵🇹 João Palhinha’s future, still open after Bayern rejected conditions offered by Aston Villa. Understand Newcastle have called again in last 24h for Palhinha. ⚪️⚫️ Benfica also interested if he doesn’t end up in Premier League. 🦅 https://t.co/il93Z2MuFT

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨⏳ Aston Villa and SL Benfica are currently the most concrete options for João Palhinha. Despite reports, Palhinha is not expected to be at Aston Villa today. There is still no agreement with any club at this stage. The current plan is for Palhinha to travel back to Munich on https://t.co/hajXVAvTSc

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 51% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+88
Florian Plettenberg advancingBroke ittrust 0.55
+4
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−41
Completion probability
51%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Aug23 Aug
6 recomputations▲ 0 points over the trail