Crystal Palace → Liverpool · Permanent · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 33% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    22 Aug
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 22 Augfirst@TEAMtalk: Ismaila Sarr's record against Liverpool could earn him a transfer to Anfield
  2. 30 AugReached Talks
  3. 30 AugJoined by @JacobsBen, @FabriceHawkins
  4. 31 AugCooling@TEAMtalk: Liverpool's second offer for Ismaila Sarr has been rejected by Crystal Palace
  5. 25 SeptJoined by @MirrorFootball

What was actually said

9 posts in 4 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancing3 reports, led by @JacobsBen

Ismaïla Sarr is pushing Crystal Palace to sell him to Liverpool. Sarr is Liverpool's preferred option to replace Manchester City target Cody Gakpo. Yankuba Minteh talks haven't ceased, but #LFC prefer Sarr despite Crystal Palace's reluctance to sell. Story with @alex_crook https://t.co/QIBAwxMKND

claims Talks+6 pointsView on X ↗
2 other posts, 2 other sources on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗+1

    💰📈 Crystal Palace have bumped up the Ismaila Sarr asking price, but Liverpool still intend to sign the winger #LFC #CPFC Full details 📎 https://t.co/MH4BZFifrX

  • @FabriceHawkins2mo ago ↗

    🚨 Crystal Palace have rejected a second offer from Liverpool for Ismaïla Sarr. The Senegalese winger wants to leave and join the Reds at all costs. Sarr will not train today as he pushes for a move and no longer wants to wear the Crystal Palace shirt. @RMCsport If Liverpool https://t.co/WXAaUP1HL8

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

🔴 Liverpool have second offer for Ismaila Sarr rejected #LFC #CPFC https://t.co/joln0PSMUG

claims Talks−3 pointsView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗−1

    🔵🔴 Pierre Sage admits that Ismaila Sarr is a little broken after seeing a late window move to Liverpool blocked - and has revealed whether a January deal can be resurrected https://t.co/RZi45ssgCK #LFC #CPFC

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 3mo ago

🎯 Liverpool are set to reignite their interest in Crystal Palace winger Ismaila Sarr in January, as per a report 🗞️ #LFC https://t.co/H8pnwTrfHA

claims RumouredView on X ↗
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗name shared — matched from context

    ⚡️ A journalist has provided an update on Liverpool's right winger pursuit, with moves for Sarr, Minteh and Mbaye all assessed ⤵️ #LFC https://t.co/Z8CZL4xhMp

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🎯 Ismaila Sarr's superb record against Liverpool could reportedly earn him a transfer to Anfield ⤵️ #LFC https://t.co/CcchQFAJkW

Denied outright

Denialone report

"They couldn't seriously think in that market it was going to get done" 😳 Crystal Palace chairman Steve Parish has told Liverpool that accepting their £50m bid for Ismaila Sarr was 'never going to happen' ❌ https://t.co/A4VnPQJt3M https://t.co/BskjvPlJ10

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 33% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+30
Ben Jacobs advancingBroke ittrust 0.57, 55% faded
+6
TEAMtalk coolingBroke ittrust 0.51, 50% faded, counted at 60%
−3
TEAMtalk coolingtrust 0.51, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 36%
−1
TEAMtalk advancingtrust 0.51, 51% faded, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 22%
+1
4 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
33%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457530 Aug: +28 points, after @JacobsBen31 Aug: −5 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting31 Aug: −4 points, after @FabriceHawkins, @TEAMtalk5 Sept: +5 points, after @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk23 Aug31 Aug5 Sept
81 recomputations▲ 21 points over the trail
  1. +282mo ago@JacobsBen: Ismaïla Sarr pushing Crystal Palace to sell him to Liverpool, who prefer him to replace Cody Gakpo despite Palace's reluctance.
  2. −52mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. +52mo ago@TEAMtalk: A late window move to Liverpool was blocked; January deal possibility remains uncertain · @TEAMtalk: Liverpool set to reignite interest in Crystal Palace winger Ismaila Sarr in January
  4. −42mo ago@FabriceHawkins: Crystal Palace rejected a second Liverpool offer for Sarr, who wants to leave and is refusing to train. · @TEAMtalk: Liverpool's second offer for Ismaila Sarr has been rejected by Crystal Palace