‼️ Sunderland are nearing an agreement to sign Igor Paixao from Marseille, and are considering moves for Chelsea and Spurs centre-backs too Full details via @GraemeBailey 👇 https://t.co/ikxYKlJFzR
Olympique de Marseille → Sunderland · Summer 2026
It did not happen
last read 28% before it was settled
- Rumoured26 Aug
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Catch me up
- 26 Augfirst@David_Ornstein: Sunderland pursuing Igor Paixao in parallel
- 29 AugReached Talks
- 29 AugJoined by @TEAMtalk
What was actually said
2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Reported as being in talks
Advancingone reportMentioned, no claim either way
Neutralone reportWhy it read 28% before it settled
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+26
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.40, 46% faded
+5
David Ornstein neutralBroke ittrust 0.75, 64% faded, counted at 60%
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−4
Completion probability
28%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
- +282mo ago@TEAMtalk: Sunderland nearing an agreement to sign Igor Paixao from Marseille
- −62mo agonews on a rival destination
- +42mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
- −42mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting