Oso

FW

Sevilla → Strasbourg Alsace · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 2mo ago
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    27 Aug
  2. Talks
    27 Aug
  3. Agreement
    27 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    28 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 27 Augfirst@FabrizioRomano: RC Strasbourg agree deal to sign Oso from Sevilla for €10m plus 10% sell-on clause
  2. 28 AugReached Done
  3. 28 AugJoined by @MatteMoretto

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

esOso to Estrasburgo in a €10m transfer

Oso, rumbo al Estrasburgo en un traspaso de 10 millones de euros. https://t.co/eqeueP9lXU

claims Done+9 pointsView on X ↗

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

🚨🔵⚪️ RC Strasbourg agree deal to sign Oso from Sevilla, here we go! Deal done at €10m plus 10% sell-on clause. Green light to the move. Formal steps to follow — after @GonzaloTortosa. https://t.co/LhIzKh8Q1R

claims Agreement+5 pointsView on X ↗

Why it read 48% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+50
Matteo Moretto advancingBroke ittrust 0.75, 54% faded
+9
Fabrizio Romano advancingBroke ittrust 0.75, 58% faded, counted at 60%
+5
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−16
Completion probability
48%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457528 Aug: +18 points, after @MatteMoretto28 Aug: −18 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination29 Aug: −8 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination29 Aug: −9 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −37 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Aug: +36 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting2 Sept: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
73 recomputations▼ 30 points over the trail
  1. −372mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. +362mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. +182mo ago@MatteMoretto: Oso to Estrasburgo in a €10m transfer
  4. −182mo agonews on a rival destination
  5. −92mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting