TransferHype
Winter 2027

Toby Collyer

MF

Manchester United → West Bromwich Albion · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 2mo ago
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    28 Aug
  2. Talks
    28 Aug
  3. Agreement
    28 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

🚨 West Brom reach an agreement with Manchester United to sign Toby Collyer. £3m+£4.6m fee and #MUFC retain a 40% sell-on. https://t.co/QKAmilnvoP

claims Agreement+6 pointsView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🚨 Toby Collyer is close to joining West Brom. Advanced talks ongoing with Manchester United. Hull City had considered a move but West Brom now looking more likely. 🤝 @alex_crook https://t.co/oMDaO5bv8p

claims Talks+4 pointsView on X ↗

Why it read 35% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+26
Ben Jacobs advancingBroke ittrust 0.55, 53% faded
+6
Ben Jacobs advancingBroke ittrust 0.55, 54% faded, counted at 60%
+4
Completion probability
35%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: +5 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −26 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting31 Aug: −8 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting1 Sept: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting2 Sept: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
71 recomputations▼ 45 points over the trail
  1. −262mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −82mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. +52mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  4. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  5. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting