Unknown clubRiver Plate · Permanent · Summer 2026

Confirmedchecked against the public record · 3mo ago · source ↗
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    17 Jun
  2. Talks
    17 Jun
  3. Agreement
    17 Jun
  4. Medical
  5. Done
    17 Jun

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

esMauro Arambarri to River Plate completed for €6.5 million

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75claims DoneView on X ↗

Why it read 12% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457528 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%28 Aug: 88%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 14%29 Aug: 12%29 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%30 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%31 Aug: 12%1 Sept: 12%1 Sept: 12%2 Sept: 12%29 Aug: −74 points, with no new post28 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations 76 points over the trail
  1. 7421d agono new post; decay or a rival moving