Tottenham Hotspur → Newcastle · Permanent · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 11% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    17 Jul
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

3 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Cooling2 reports, led by @David_Ornstein

🚨 EXCL: Newcastle United make offer to sign Lucas Bergvall from Tottenham Hotspur. Proposal for 20yo midfielder £46m; turned down. #THFC rejected all bids so far (#NFFC lower + others higher than #NUFC) but will consider sale at right price @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/wulgjMQ1yD

claims TalksView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    Tottenham have REJECTED a Newcastle bid for Lucas Bergvall ❌ But an agreement might not be far away 👀 #THFC #NUFC https://t.co/sZEAjlFlMj

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Newcastle are plotting a double raid on Tottenham for Lucas Bergvall and Djed Spence, but it could cost them as much as £90m 😲 #NUFC #THFC https://t.co/lbDolOHQ2k

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why it read 11% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+14
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
4 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
11%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −16 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −3 points, after @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk28 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations▼ 19 points over the trail
  1. −162mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −32mo ago@TEAMtalk: Tottenham rejected Newcastle's bid for Lucas Bergvall, though an agreement may be close · @TEAMtalk: Newcastle plotting a raid on Tottenham for Lucas Bergvall as part of a double deal