JuventusACF Fiorentina · Loan · Summer 2026

Confirmedchecked against the public record · 2mo ago · source ↗
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    23 Jul
  2. Talks
    23 Jul
  3. Agreement
    2 Aug
  4. Medical
    2 Aug
  5. Done
    2 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 23 Julfirst@DiMarzio: itJuventus in talks with Fiorentina over Joao Mario loan move
  2. 2 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano
  3. 2 AugReached Agreement
  4. 2 AugReached Medical
  5. 2 AugReached Done

What was actually said

10 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

itJoão Mario to ACFFiorentina on loan with €1m loan fee and €9m obligation to buy

JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55claims DoneView on X ↗

Reported at medical stage

Advancing4 reports, led by @DiMarzio

itJoão Mario to undergo medical as new Fiorentina player tomorrow

JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 60%claims MedicalView on X ↗
3 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano2mo agono effect

    🚨💜 Fiorentina have agreed loan deal to sign João Mario from Juventus. The agreement included a buy option clause not mandatory. Medical on Monday, as Sky reports. https://t.co/KyJPp6x0UO

  • @FabrizioRomano2mo agono effect

    🟣🇵🇹 Medical today at Fiorentina for João Mario as new fullback: €1m loan fee and €9m buy option clause not mandatory from Juventus. Deal in place. https://t.co/URb6k1401J

  • @DiMarzio2mo agono effect

    itJoao Mario arrived in Florence for medical examinations

    .@acffiorentina, Joao Mario è arrivato a Firenze per le visite mediche 📹@firenzeviola_it https://t.co/V8BnY5bvMk

Reported as being in talks

Advancing5 reports, led by @DiMarzio

itJuventus in talks with Fiorentina over Joao Mario loan move

JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 13%claims TalksView on X ↗
4 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @DiMarzio2mo agono effect

    itContinuous contacts for a loan with redemption right worth 8-9 million euros

    Joao Mario-@acffiorentina: contatti continui per un prestito con diritto di riscatto da 8-9 milioni https://t.co/9yyl56CztI https://t.co/zYlShotzXK

  • @DiMarzio2mo agono effect

    .@acffiorentina, Joao Mario più vicino

  • @DiMarzio2mo agono effect

    itFiorentina have presented an offer to Juventus for Joao Mario; deal could close this week

    .@acffiorentina presentata l'offerta alla @juventusfc per Joao Mario: la chiusura può arrivare in settimana https://t.co/dzglDXWIdE

  • @FabrizioRomano2mo agono effect

    🚨🇵🇹 Fiorentina are closing in on João Mário deal from Juventus on initial loan with buy option clause. https://t.co/bYP1tTcJZt

Why it read 27% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+29
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
10 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
27%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457528 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%28 Aug: 69%29 Aug: 31%29 Aug: 31%29 Aug: 31%29 Aug: 31%29 Aug: 31%29 Aug: 31%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%29 Aug: 30%30 Aug: 30%30 Aug: 30%30 Aug: 30%30 Aug: 30%30 Aug: 30%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%30 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 29%31 Aug: 28%31 Aug: 28%1 Sept: 27%1 Sept: 27%2 Sept: 27%29 Aug: −38 points, with no new post28 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations 42 points over the trail
  1. 3821d agono new post; decay or a rival moving