Chelsea → Manchester City · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 33% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    4 Aug
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 4 Augfirst@FabrizioRomano: Manchester City in direct contact with Pedro Neto's camp over possible move, contingent on Savinho's departure to Spurs and Chelsea's valuation.
  2. 12 AugCooling@FabrizioRomano: Significant valuation gap between Man City and Chelsea for Pedro Neto; Chelsea not planning to reduce their asking price.
  3. 5 SeptJoined by @TEAMtalk

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

⚡️ Arsenal and Man City are poised to make contact for Chelsea winger Pedro Neto in January, according to a report 📰 #AFC #MCFC #CFC https://t.co/TRTZroIqpD

claims Rumoured+3 pointsView on X ↗

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

🚨🇵🇹 There’s currently a significant gap in valuation between Man City and Chelsea for Pedro Neto deal. Chelsea do not plan to reduce their requests for the Portuguese winger. 🎥➕ https://t.co/QGPKUT6qiI https://t.co/jtnydlXlfG

claims TalksView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🚨🇵🇹 EXCL: Manchester City make direct contact with Pedro Neto’s camp as talks start over possible move. Neto among #MCFC target if Savinho goes to Spurs while he’s also understood to be on Tottenham list as backup option. Deal also depends on Chelsea valuation. 🔛 https://t.co/POaVdvToDJ

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 33% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+30
TEAMtalk neutralBroke ittrust 0.51
+3
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
33%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −9 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting5 Sept: +18 points, after @TEAMtalk28 Aug29 Aug5 Sept
68 recomputations▲ 3 points over the trail
  1. +182mo ago@TEAMtalk: Manchester City poised to make contact for Chelsea winger Pedro Neto in January
  2. −92mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting