TransferHype
Winter 2027

Thiago Almada

MF

Atlético Madrid → River Plate · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedchecked against the public record · 1mo ago · source ↗
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    2 Aug
  2. Talks
    2 Aug
  3. Agreement
    6 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    6 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 2 Augfirst@MatteMoretto: esRiver in advanced talks with Thiago Almada, who prioritizes returning to Argentina
  2. 6 AugReached Agreement
  3. 6 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano
  4. 6 AugReached Done

What was actually said

5 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancing2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto
1 other post on the same claim
  • @MatteMoretto1mo ago ↗no effect

    esThiago Almada joins River for €20m with 100% of rights; Atlético has buyback option for €40m within 18 months (December 2027)

    Thiago Almada llega a River por 20 millones de euros por el 100% del pase. El Atlético tiene opción de recomprarlo dentro de 18 meses (diciembre de 2027) por 40 millones de euros. @marca

Reported as agreed

Advancing2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto

esVerbal agreement reached between Atlético de Madrid and River for transfer worth around 20 million

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 60%claims AgreementView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano1mo ago ↗no effect

    🚨🔴⚪️ River Plate reach verbal agreement with Atletico Madrid for Thiago Almada, here we go! Green light on personal terms, waiting to review contracts and proceed with formal steps. Transfer fee around €20m, as @marca reported. https://t.co/sctY9SYpG1

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

esRiver in advanced talks with Thiago Almada, who prioritizes returning to Argentina

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 36%claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 23% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+25
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
5 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
23%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457528 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%28 Aug: 89%29 Aug: 39%29 Aug: 39%29 Aug: 39%29 Aug: 39%29 Aug: 39%29 Aug: 39%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 38%29 Aug: 32%29 Aug: 32%29 Aug: 32%29 Aug: 32%29 Aug: 32%29 Aug: 32%29 Aug: 25%29 Aug: 26%30 Aug: 26%30 Aug: 26%30 Aug: 26%30 Aug: 26%30 Aug: 26%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%30 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 25%31 Aug: 24%31 Aug: 24%1 Sept: 24%1 Sept: 24%2 Sept: 23%29 Aug: −50 points, with no new post29 Aug: −6 points, with no new post29 Aug: −7 points, with no new post28 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations▼ 66 points over the trail
  1. −5021d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  2. −720d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  3. −620d agono new post; decay or a rival moving