TransferHype
Winter 2027

Thiago Almada

MF

Atlético Madrid → River Plate · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedchecked against the public record · 3mo ago · source ↗
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    2 Aug
  2. Talks
    2 Aug
  3. Agreement
    6 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    6 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 2 Augfirst@MatteMoretto: esRiver in advanced talks with Thiago Almada, who prioritizes returning to Argentina
  2. 6 AugReached Agreement
  3. 6 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano
  4. 6 AugReached Done

What was actually said

5 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancing2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto

Thiago Almada a River está cerrado. https://t.co/HROeKSwzCK

claims DoneView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @MatteMoretto3mo ago ↗

    esThiago Almada joins River for €20m with 100% of rights; Atlético has buyback option for €40m within 18 months (December 2027)

    Thiago Almada llega a River por 20 millones de euros por el 100% del pase. El Atlético tiene opción de recomprarlo dentro de 18 meses (diciembre de 2027) por 40 millones de euros. @marca

Reported as agreed

Advancing2 reports, led by @MatteMoretto

esVerbal agreement reached between Atlético de Madrid and River for transfer worth around 20 million

Thiago Almada, a un paso de River. Acuerdo verbal entre el Atlético de Madrid y el club argentino para su traspaso por alrededor de 20 millones. @marca https://t.co/4A2LT7bQPO

claims AgreementView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano3mo ago ↗

    🚨🔴⚪️ River Plate reach verbal agreement with Atletico Madrid for Thiago Almada, here we go! Green light on personal terms, waiting to review contracts and proceed with formal steps. Transfer fee around €20m, as @marca reported. https://t.co/sctY9SYpG1

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

esRiver in advanced talks with Thiago Almada, who prioritizes returning to Argentina

La pugna entre Flamengo y River por Thiago Almada entra en su fase final. El club brasileño tiene un acuerdo casi cerrado con el Atlético de Madrid, pero River está en conversaciones muy avanzadas con el jugador, quien prioriza su regreso a Argentina. Por el momento, no se ha

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why it read 23% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+25
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
5 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
23%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −50 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −6 points, after @MatteMoretto29 Aug: −7 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
67 recomputations▼ 66 points over the trail
  1. −502mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −72mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −62mo ago@MatteMoretto: River in advanced talks with Thiago Almada, who prioritizes returning to Argentina