TransferHype
Winter 2027

Arthur

DF

Bayer 04 Leverkusen → Hamburger SV · Loan · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 27% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    29 Aug
  2. Talks
    29 Aug
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

🚨🆕 Hamburger SV and Arthur have reached a verbal agreement in principle. #HSV are now in negotiations with Bayer 04 Leverkusen over a loan deal without an option to buy. It’s now only down to the clubs. Not a done deal yet. @SkySportDE 🇧🇷 https://t.co/CI4w9HWqC5

claims Agreement+7 pointsView on X ↗

Why it read 27% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+26
Florian Plettenberg advancingBroke ittrust 0.55, 47% faded
+7
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−6
Completion probability
27%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: +5 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −54 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Aug: +24 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting31 Aug: −8 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting31 Aug: −9 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination29 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
46 recomputations▼ 47 points over the trail
  1. −542mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. +242mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −92mo agonews on a rival destination
  4. −82mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  5. +52mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting