Arsenal → Newcastle · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 11% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    11 Aug
  2. Talks
    11 Aug
  3. Agreement
    11 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

Arsenal set to receive millions back from Newcastle days after Bruno Guimaraes transfer https://t.co/NYRxLNEAbS https://t.co/CsWDoqiI2m

claims DoneView on X ↗

Why it read 11% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
11%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

Not enough history yet. The line appears after a few recalculations.