1. FSV Mainz 05 → SK Sturm Graz · Loan · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedchecked against the public record · 4mo ago · source ↗
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    17 Jul
  2. Talks
    17 Jul
  3. Agreement
    17 Jul
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    17 Jul

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

🚨💥 Nelson Weiper to Sturm Graz - DONE DEAL ✔️ Full agreement reached with FSV Mainz 05. Medical completed. Loan deal agreed. Official announcement soon. @_dennisbayer 🇩🇪 https://t.co/Qbk8O0eF2p

claims DoneView on X ↗

Why it read 14% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+14
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
14%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −9 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug29 Aug2 Sept
45 recomputations▼ 7 points over the trail
  1. −92mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting