Manchester City → Arsenal · Summer 2026
It did not happen
last read 11% before it was settled
- Rumoured—
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
What was actually said
2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Reported as a live interest
Advancingone reportMentioned, no claim either way
Neutralone reportWhy it read 11% before it settled
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
11%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
Not enough history yet. The line appears after a few recalculations.