Athletic Club → Arsenal · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 14% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    10 Jun
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 10 Junfirst@TEAMtalk: Arsenal given fresh hope of signing Nico Williams as winger is open to leaving Athletic Bilbao
  2. 19 JunDenial@TEAMtalk: Arsenal target Nico Williams is going nowhere
  3. 20 JulReached Talks
  4. 20 JulAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Andrea Berta holds talks over reviving a deal to sign Nico Williams

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

‼️🆕 Arsenal 𝗘𝗫𝗖𝗟𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 Andrea Berta holds talks over reviving a deal to sign Spain World Cup hero Nico Williams, after missing out on Morgan Rogers and amid difficulties in the pursuit of Bradley Barcola @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/FHOttokTsh #transfers

claims TalksView on X ↗

Denied outright

Denialone report

Arsenal target Nico Williams is going 𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 ❌ https://t.co/5pVMqpOvEU

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

🔴⚪️ Arsenal 𝗘𝗫𝗖𝗟𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 Gunners given fresh hope of Nico Williams transfer as sources explain why Athletic Bilbao winger is open to leaving Basque Country club just a year after inking extraordinary 10-year deal @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/uJPgHkC9f7

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why it read 14% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+14
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
14%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug2 Sept
45 recomputations▲ 0 points over the trail