Olympique Lyonnais → Everton · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 2mo ago
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    23 Jun
  2. Talks
    1 Sept
  3. Agreement
    1 Sept
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    1 Sept

Catch me up

  1. 23 Junfirst@TEAMtalk: Everton have registered their interest in Lyon full-back Ainsley Maitland-Niles
  2. 1 SeptReached Agreement
  3. 1 SeptReached Done
  4. 1 SeptReached Talks
  5. 1 SeptJoined by @JacobsBen

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

Everton confirm Ainsley Maitland-Niles has joined from Lyon for €5m. Three-year contract.✍️ https://t.co/boLH9zpAYW

claims Done+12 pointsView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Everton have 'registered their interest' in Lyon full-back Ainsley Maitland-Niles 🔵 Newcastle and Crystal Palace are among the other clubs keen on the former Arsenal man... @HJWatkinson & @GraemeBailey | #EFC https://t.co/XNCC5ZG3g3

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why it read 34% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+29
Ben Jacobs advancingBroke ittrust 0.55
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−7
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
34%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045751 Sept: +26 points, after @JacobsBen2 Sept: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug1 Sept2 Sept
45 recomputations▲ 24 points over the trail
  1. +262mo ago@JacobsBen: Ainsley Maitland-Niles joins Everton from Lyon for €5m on a three-year contract.
  2. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting