TransferHype
Winter 2027

Thiago Almada

MF

Atlético Madrid → Flamengo RJ · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 14% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    20 Jul
  2. Talks
    24 Jul
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 20 Julfirst@MatteMoretto: esFlamengo pursuing Thiago Almada
  2. 24 JulReached Talks
  3. 2 AugReached Agreement

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

esFlamengo has an almost-closed agreement with Atlético de Madrid for Thiago Almada

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75claims AgreementView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

esThiago Almada very close to Flamengo, negotiations with Atlético falling apart

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 60%claims TalksView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

esFlamengo pursuing Thiago Almada

JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 36%claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why it read 14% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+16
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−2
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
14%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 22%29 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%30 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%31 Aug: 15%1 Sept: 15%1 Sept: 15%2 Sept: 14%29 Aug: −7 points, with no new post29 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
37 recomputations▼ 7 points over the trail
  1. −718d agono new post; decay or a rival moving