Bayern Munich → Los Angeles · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedchecked against the public record · 3mo ago · source ↗
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    13 Aug
  2. Talks
    13 Aug
  3. Agreement
    13 Aug
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    13 Aug

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

🚨🏁 Official: Armindo Sieb, new player of @LAFC. Bayern‘s „Red&Gold Football“ partner club. https://t.co/UtfSmcD998

claims Done+1 pointView on X ↗

Why it read 19% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+19
Florian Plettenberg advancingBroke ittrust 0.55, 94% faded
+1
Completion probability
19%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −36 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Aug: +8 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
37 recomputations▼ 30 points over the trail
  1. −362mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. +82mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting