TransferHype
Winter 2027

Richarlison

FW

Tottenham Hotspur F.C. → Trabzonspor · Winter 2027

28%
Possible
first reported 17d agolast moved 16d ago
  1. Rumoured
    2 Sept
  2. Talks
    2 Sept
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

4 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as agreed

Advancing2 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk17d ago ↗no effect

    🇧🇷✅ Richarlison deal with Trabzonspor agreed, and a third bid from the Turkish side is on the way Full details 📎 https://t.co/oI9Q2d0aQe

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.51counted at 60%claims TalksView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.51counted at 36%claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 28%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+20
FabrizioRomano advancingBroke ittrust 0.81, 91% faded
+1
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.51, 90% faded, counted at 60%
+1
Turned down a new contractreported by @FabrizioRomano — about the player, not this move
+15
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−9
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
28%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045752 Sept: 83%3 Sept: 81%3 Sept: 83%4 Sept: 83%4 Sept: 83%4 Sept: 83%5 Sept: 87%5 Sept: 87%5 Sept: 89%5 Sept: 87%5 Sept: 89%5 Sept: 89%5 Sept: 89%5 Sept: 89%6 Sept: 87%6 Sept: 87%6 Sept: 87%6 Sept: 86%6 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 86%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 85%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%7 Sept: 84%8 Sept: 84%8 Sept: 84%8 Sept: 84%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 83%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 82%8 Sept: 81%8 Sept: 81%8 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 81%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 80%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 79%9 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 78%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 77%10 Sept: 76%10 Sept: 76%10 Sept: 76%10 Sept: 76%10 Sept: 76%10 Sept: 76%10 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 75%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 76%11 Sept: 75%11 Sept: 75%11 Sept: 75%11 Sept: 75%11 Sept: 75%11 Sept: 56%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%11 Sept: 55%12 Sept: 55%12 Sept: 55%12 Sept: 55%12 Sept: 55%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%12 Sept: 54%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 53%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%13 Sept: 52%14 Sept: 52%14 Sept: 52%14 Sept: 52%14 Sept: 52%14 Sept: 52%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 51%14 Sept: 50%14 Sept: 50%14 Sept: 50%14 Sept: 50%14 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 50%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%15 Sept: 49%16 Sept: 49%16 Sept: 49%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 48%16 Sept: 47%16 Sept: 47%16 Sept: 47%16 Sept: 47%16 Sept: 47%16 Sept: 47%17 Sept: 47%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 35%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%17 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 34%18 Sept: 29%18 Sept: 29%19 Sept: 29%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%19 Sept: 28%20 Sept: 28%5 Sept: +4 points, with no new post11 Sept: −19 points, with no new post17 Sept: −12 points, with no new post18 Sept: −5 points, with no new post2 Sept12 Sept20 Sept
340 recomputations▼ 55 points over the trail
  1. −199d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  2. −123d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  3. −51d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  4. +414d agono new post; decay or a rival moving