NewcastleManchester United F.C. · Winter 2027

2%
Unlikely
first reported 11d agolast moved 7d ago
  1. Rumoured
    7 Sept
  2. Talks
    8 Sept
  3. Agreement
  4. Medical
  5. Done

Catch me up

  1. 7 Septfirst@TEAMtalk: Man Utd have Lewis Hall as their No 1 left-back target for January
  2. 8 SeptReached Talks
  3. 8 SeptJoined by @MirrorFootball

What was actually said

5 posts in 4 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report
AggregatorTier 4weighted 0.41counted at 60%claims RumouredView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.51counted at 36%claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.51counted at 22%claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk7d agono effect

    🔴 Lewis Hall signs new Newcastle contract, but Man Utd STILL interested, sources tell TEAMtalk #MUFC #NUFC https://t.co/sQqvmPa7vP

Why 2%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+25
MirrorFootball denialBroke ittrust 0.41, 65% faded
−4
MirrorFootball coolingBroke ittrust 0.41, 73% faded, counted at 60%
−1
Signed a new contractreported by @JacobsBen — about the player, not this move
−14
Signed a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−2
Signed a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−1
5 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
2%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045757 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%7 Sept: 14%8 Sept: 14%8 Sept: 14%8 Sept: 14%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 13%8 Sept: 9%8 Sept: 9%8 Sept: 9%8 Sept: 19%8 Sept: 19%8 Sept: 19%8 Sept: 19%8 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 19%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%9 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 9%10 Sept: 5%10 Sept: 5%10 Sept: 5%10 Sept: 6%10 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 6%11 Sept: 2%11 Sept: 2%11 Sept: 2%11 Sept: 2%11 Sept: 2%11 Sept: 2%11 Sept: 1%11 Sept: 1%11 Sept: 1%11 Sept: 1%11 Sept: 1%11 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 1%12 Sept: 2%12 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 1%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%13 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%14 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%15 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%16 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%17 Sept: 2%18 Sept: 2%18 Sept: 2%18 Sept: 2%18 Sept: 2%8 Sept: −4 points, with no new post8 Sept: +10 points, with no new post9 Sept: −10 points, with no new post10 Sept: −4 points, with no new post11 Sept: −4 points, with no new post7 Sept12 Sept18 Sept
256 recomputations 12 points over the trail
  1. +109d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  2. 109d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  3. 49d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  4. 47d agono new post; decay or a rival moving
  5. 47d agono new post; decay or a rival moving