Arsenal → Real Madrid · Permanent · Winter 2027
Will Martín Zubimendi join Real Madrid? Unlikely for now: 6%, still a rumour, on 4 posts since 9 Sep.
6%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 1d ago
- Rumoured9 Sept
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 2 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- Real MadridRumoured6%since 9 Sept · 4 posts
- since 9 Sept · 2 posts
What was actually said
4 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Denied outright
Denialone reportMentioned, no claim either way
Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalkclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Why 6%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
TEAMtalk denialBroke ittrust 0.52
−6
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
6%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.