Arsenal → Real Madrid · Permanent · Winter 2027
12%
Unlikely
first reported 11d agolast moved 3d ago
- Rumoured9 Sept
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 2 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- Real MadridRumoured12%
- Chelsea F.C.Rumoured12%
What was actually said
3 posts in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.
Mentioned, no claim either way
Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk2 other posts on the same claim
Why 12%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.