ArsenalReal Madrid · Permanent · Winter 2027

12%
Unlikely
first reported 11d agolast moved 3d ago
  1. Rumoured
    9 Sept
  2. Talks
  3. Agreement
  4. Medical
  5. Done

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

3 posts in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral3 reports, led by @TEAMtalk
2 other posts on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk7d agono effect

    🔴Real Madrid learn how much Martin Zubimendi will cost in January #RMCF #AFC https://t.co/2lFhEyuMif

  • @TEAMtalk3d agono effect

    Arsenal have responded amid claims Martin Zubimendi is joining Real Madrid in January Full story 📎 https://t.co/rIY1Mg6tgo

Why 12%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045759 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%9 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 13%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%10 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%11 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 12%12 Sept: 13%12 Sept: 13%12 Sept: 13%12 Sept: 13%12 Sept: 13%12 Sept: 13%13 Sept: 13%13 Sept: 13%13 Sept: 13%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%13 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%14 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%15 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%16 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%17 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%18 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%19 Sept: 12%20 Sept: 12%9 Sept14 Sept20 Sept
256 recomputations 1 points over the trail