TransferHype
Winter 2027

Rodrygo

FW

Real Madrid → Arsenal · Winter 2027

Will Rodrygo join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 10%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 16 Sep.

10%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 28d ago
  1. Rumoured
    16 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

🔴 Bad news for Arsenal in pursuit of Real Madrid star Rodrygo #AFC #RMCF https://t.co/x1jUdaA3JB

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🚨🆕 Arsenal have maintained contact with Rodrygo's camp as the Real Madrid star continues his remarkable recovery from injury The Brazilian could be back ahead of the New Year, and remains a top target for Mikel Arteta's side ⤵️ @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/1djSWYxCWb

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Real Madrid winger Rodrygo is back on Arsenal's radar as he recovers from an ACL injury, TEAMtalk can confirm 🔴 https://t.co/cElQyJXSdU

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457518 Sept: −20 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting8 Oct: −8 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting24 Oct: +7 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting17 Sept20 Sept5 Nov
1211 recomputations▼ 33 points over the trail
  1. −202mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −828d agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. +713d agono new post: we re-read the reporting