TransferHype
Winter 2027

Rodrygo

FW

Real Madrid → Arsenal · Winter 2027

17%
Unlikely
first reported 4d agolast moved 4d ago
  1. Rumoured
    16 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report
AggregatorTier 3weighted 0.51counted at 60%claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 17%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.51
+4
TEAMtalk neutralBroke ittrust 0.51, counted at 60%
+1
Completion probability
17%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457517 Sept: 43%17 Sept: 43%17 Sept: 43%17 Sept: 43%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 42%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 41%17 Sept: 40%17 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 40%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 39%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 38%18 Sept: 18%18 Sept: 18%19 Sept: 18%19 Sept: 18%19 Sept: 18%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%19 Sept: 17%20 Sept: 17%18 Sept: −20 points, with no new post17 Sept18 Sept20 Sept
73 recomputations▼ 26 points over the trail
  1. −201d agono new post; decay or a rival moving