Crystal Palace F.C. → Manchester United F.C. · Winter 2027
17%
Unlikely
first reported 23h agolast moved 4h ago
- Rumoured21 Sept
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 3 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- Manchester United F.C.Rumoured17%
- Liverpool F.C.Rumoured12%
- Chelsea F.C.Rumoured12%
What was actually said
2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Reported as a live interest
Advancingone reportMentioned, no claim either way
Neutralone reportWhy 17%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.51
+7
TEAMtalk neutralBroke ittrust 0.51, counted at 60%
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
Completion probability
17%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
- +416m agono new post; decay or a rival moving