Liverpool → Real Madrid · Summer 2027

Will Virgil van Dijk join Real Madrid? Unlikely for now: 7%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 5 Oct.

7%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    5 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🔴 Liverpool could offer Virgil van Dijk a new contract to stop him from joining Real Madrid #LFC #RMCF https://t.co/tvYeYC3mrN

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 7%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+9
In talks over a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−2
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
7%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045757 Oct: +3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting6 Oct13 Oct6 Nov
751 recomputations▼ 5 points over the trail
  1. +329d agono new post: we re-read the reporting