🚨 EXCL: Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain have been told that Julian Alvarez is going nowhere in January The Argentine international has repaired his relationship with Atletico's supporters and Diego Simeone 🤝 @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/N1FXZ33ey7
Atlético Madrid → Arsenal · Permanent · Winter 2027
Will Julián Álvarez join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 5 posts since 7 Oct.
9%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 10d ago
- Rumoured7 Oct
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Catch me up
What was actually said
5 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Denied outright
Denial2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk
Reported as being in talks
Advancingone reportclaims TalksView on X ↗
Reported as a live interest
Advancing2 reports, led by @TEAMtalkclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Why 9%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
TEAMtalk denialBroke ittrust 0.52, 77% faded
−2
TEAMtalk denialtrust 0.52, 76% faded, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 60%
−1
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.