Manchester United → Napoli · Permanent · Winter 2027

Will Joshua Zirkzee join Napoli? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 10 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 26d agolast moved 26d ago
  1. Rumoured
    10 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

🔴⚫️ Michael Carrick pleads with INEOS to sign him another striker in January as Joshua Zirkzee reportedly agrees to leave and make cut-price move to Napoli https://t.co/5ZmDa2JS98 #MUFC

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457511 Oct15 Oct6 Nov
626 recomputations▼ 8 points over the trail