Red Bull Salzburg → Benfica · Winter 2027

Will Bartosz Mazurek join Benfica? Unlikely for now: 3%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 12 Oct.

3%
Unlikely
first reported 24d agolast moved 24d ago
  1. Rumoured
    12 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Brighton are ready to battle Portuguese heavyweights Benfica and Porto for top Polish talent Bartosz Mazurek 🤜🤛 @FrazFletcher ✍️ | #BHAFC https://t.co/bBphY36pqg

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 3%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−7
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
3%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457512 Oct28 Oct5 Nov
582 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail