Napoli → Real Madrid · Winter 2027

Will Scott McTominay join Real Madrid? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 17 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 19d agolast moved 19d ago
  1. Rumoured
    17 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Real Madrid want Scott McTominay Full details 📎 https://t.co/7Ypgr1i8NT

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457518 Oct20 Oct5 Nov
456 recomputations▼ 3 points over the trail