Real Madrid → Liverpool · Winter 2027
Will Trent Alexander-Arnold join Liverpool? Unlikely for now: 6%, still a rumour, on 5 posts since 19 Oct.
6%
Unlikely
first reported 17d agolast moved 2d ago
- Rumoured19 Oct
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Catch me up
- 19 Octfirst@TEAMtalk: Liverpool are keeping a close eye on Trent Alexander-Arnold's situation at Real Madrid, with a return to Anfield not ruled out
- 27 OctReached Talks
- 27 OctAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Liverpool and Trent Alexander-Arnold aligned on January return to Anfield
- 4 NovDenial@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid planning to keep Trent Alexander-Arnold in January despite Liverpool links
What was actually said
5 posts in 4 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Denied outright
Denialone reportReported as being in talks
Advancingone reportSaid to be cooling
Coolingone reportclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Mentioned, no claim either way
Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalkclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Why 6%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
TEAMtalk denialBroke ittrust 0.52
−6
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.52, 74% faded, counted at 60%
+1
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
6%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.
Probability over time
- +79d ago@TEAMtalk: Liverpool and Trent Alexander-Arnold aligned on January return to Anfield
- −61d ago@TEAMtalk: Real Madrid planning to keep Trent Alexander-Arnold in January despite Liverpool links
- −310d ago@TEAMtalk: Trent Alexander-Arnold has decided to stay at Real Madrid for the rest of the season, cooling speculation of a January return to Liverpool.