Tottenham Hotspur → Napoli · Winter 2027

Will Lucas Bergvall join Napoli? Unlikely for now: 2%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 27 Oct.

2%
Unlikely
first reported 9d agolast moved 1d ago
  1. Rumoured
    27 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 3 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

⚪️ Tottenham do not wish to sell Lucas Bergvall to any of his suitors - Barcelona included - in January ❗️ There is, however, one way in which their stance would change... Full details via @FrazFletcher https://t.co/1D9z77hRfO

claims Rumoured−6 pointsView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Barcelona, Napoli and Juventus are all keeping close tabs on Lucas Bergvall 👀 The 20-year-old recently signed a new Tottenham contract, but limited minutes could see him pursue a new challenge... @FrazFletcher | #THFC https://t.co/01lzIro04q

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 2%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
TEAMtalk denialBroke ittrust 0.52
−6
Signed a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−3
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
2%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045755 Nov: −3 points, after @TEAMtalk27 Oct4 Nov5 Nov
221 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail
  1. −322h ago@TEAMtalk: Tottenham do not wish to sell Lucas Bergvall in January, though their stance could change under certain circumstances