Porto → Manchester United · Permanent · Winter 2027

Will Alberto Costa join Manchester United? Unlikely for now: 6%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 28 Oct.

6%
Unlikely
first reported 8d agolast moved 8d ago
  1. Rumoured
    28 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🇵🇹 Man Utd have reportedly identified £54m-rated Porto star Alberto Costa as a potential replacement for Diogo Dalot Arsenal are also in the race ⤵️ #MUFC #AFC https://t.co/tNF33ucNdB

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 6%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−6
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
6%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Oct30 Oct5 Nov
191 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail