Southampton → Benfica · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 17% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    12 Aug
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

What was actually said

2 posts in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancing2 reports, led by @David_Ornstein@JacobsBen had it first, 3mo ago

🚨 Benfica lodge €20m offer to sign Taylor Harwood-Bellis from Southampton. Bid for 24yo centre-back falls below valuation & rejected but #SaintsFC open if price right. Marco Silva wants England int’l + player keen on #SLBenfica possibility @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/FTotYaLotY

claims Talks+1 pointView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @JacobsBen3mo ago ↗

    Benfica are also in talks for Southampton's Taylor Harwood-Bellis as another option.😇 https://t.co/un7OxLe7JP

Why it read 17% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+20
David Ornstein advancingtrust 0.75, 91% faded, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%)
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
17%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Aug: −14 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination28 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −7 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting15 Aug28 Aug1 Sept
102 recomputations▼ 31 points over the trail
  1. −142mo agonews on a rival destination
  2. −72mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting