Manchester CityTottenham Hotspur F.C. · Loan · Summer 2026

Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 20d ago
95%
final reading before it was settled
first reported 1mo agolast moved 21d ago
  1. Rumoured
    19 Aug
  2. Talks
    19 Aug
  3. Agreement
    21 Aug
  4. Medical
    23 Aug
  5. Done

Catch me up

  1. 19 Augfirst@David_Ornstein: Tottenham working on deal to sign 27yo Egypt forward Omar Marmoush from Manchester City, talks advancing
  2. 21 AugReached Agreement
  3. 21 AugJoined by @Plettigoal
  4. 23 AugReached Medical
  5. 23 AugJoined by @FabrizioRomano, @TEAMtalk

What was actually said

6 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported at medical stage

Advancing2 reports, led by @FabrizioRomano
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 60%claims MedicalView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @David_Ornstein24d ago+1

    🚨 Omar Marmoush granted permission to take Tottenham Hotspur medical after saying goodbyes at Manchester City today. 27yo joins #MCFC on loan with #THFC buy obligation for £50m + £10m (£5m guaranteed) - 4+1yr contract & no Frankfurt sell-on @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/RRHohysvyG

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 22%claims TalksView on X ↗

Reported as agreed

Advancing3 reports, led by @Plettigoal
JournalistTier 2weighted 0.55counted at 13%claims AgreementView on X ↗
2 other posts, 2 other sources on the same claim
  • @FabrizioRomano26d agono effect

    ⚪️🇪🇬 After Savinho, Omar Marmoush set for Tottenham move early next week. Loan with buy clause to become mandatory under certain conditions at £50m. https://t.co/1qd7LRtikH

  • @TEAMtalk26d agono effect

    ⚪️An agreement for Tottenham to sign Omar Marmoush from Manchester City is in place, but on an initial LOAN deal... #THFC https://t.co/2H4CMG2vlW

Why it read 91% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+88
FabrizioRomano advancingBroke ittrust 0.75, 50% faded, counted at 60%
+2
David_Ornstein advancingtrust 0.75, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 36%
+1
4 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
91%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Aug: 97%23 Aug: 97%23 Aug: 97%23 Aug: 97%23 Aug: 97%23 Aug: 97%23 Aug: 97%28 Aug: 94%28 Aug: 94%28 Aug: 94%28 Aug: 95%28 Aug: 95%28 Aug: −3 points, after @David_Ornstein23 Aug23 Aug28 Aug
12 recomputations 2 points over the trail
  1. 322d ago@David_Ornstein: Granted permission to take Tottenham medical; loan with buy obligation for £50m + £10m (£5m guaranteed), 4+1yr contract