TransferHype
Winter 2027

Carlos Baleba

MF

Brighton → Manchester United F.C. · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 21d ago
92%
final reading before it was settled
first reported 3mo agolast moved 20d ago
  1. Rumoured
    11 Jun
  2. Talks
    19 Aug
  3. Agreement
    21 Aug
  4. Medical
    21 Aug
  5. Done
    30 Aug

Catch me up

  1. 11 Junfirst@TEAMtalk: Manchester United focusing on deal for Carlos Baleba
  2. 6 AugCooling@TEAMtalk: New developments mean it looks unlikely Carlos Baleba will arrive at Man Utd this summer
  3. 19 AugReached Talks
  4. 19 AugAdvancing@David_Ornstein: Manchester United closing in on deal to sign Carlos Baleba from Brighton & Hove Albion; offer of ~£60+5m with amicable talks continuing
  5. 19 AugJoined by @David_Ornstein
  6. 21 AugReached Agreement
  7. 21 AugReached Medical
  8. 21 AugJoined by @Plettigoal
  9. 30 AugReached Done
  10. 30 AugJoined by @JacobsBen

What was actually said

11 posts in 6 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported at medical stage

Advancing2 reports, led by @Plettigoal
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @David_Ornstein29d ago ↗no effect

    🚨 Carlos Baleba to join Manchester United from Brighton & Hove Albion on 5+1yr contract; personal terms verbally agreed & 22yo to do #MUFC medical on Saturday after deal struck with #BHAFC at £65m + £5m + sell-on clause @TheAthleticFC post @FabrizioRomano https://t.co/PVzrRhSp1U

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report
JournalistTier 1weighted 0.75counted at 60%claims TalksView on X ↗

Reported as done

Advancingone report

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report
AggregatorTier 3seeded, not yet measuredclaims RumouredView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancing2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 3mo ago
AggregatorTier 3seeded, not yet measuredclaims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    📈 Manchester United exit Elliot Anderson transfer race as price threatens to escalate to crazy new heights. The Red Devils will instead focus on deals for 🔸Mateus Fernandes 🔸 Alex Scott 🔸 Carlos Baleba https://t.co/XjwJKKwgvX #MUFC #transfernews

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral4 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 3mo ago
AggregatorTier 3seeded, not yet measuredclaims RumouredView on X ↗
3 other posts on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗

    🔴Manchester United could return to the fold for Carlos Baleba if his price tag is lowered... #MUFC https://t.co/SsDQ3fil2f

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    ⚡️ Man Utd are in a position to strike quickly for Carlos Baleba, but two other targets are currently preferred ⤵️ #MUFC https://t.co/ZwYprFPzBP

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔥 Man Utd are planning to move for Alex Scott or Carlos Baleba once Manuel Ugarte is sold, according to a report ⤵️ #MUFC https://t.co/Ki7Ndc6cXX

Why it read 92% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+88
Plettigoal advancingBroke ittrust 0.55, 62% faded
+2
David_Ornstein advancingBroke ittrust 0.75, 73% faded, counted at 60%
+1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
92%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457523 Aug: 94%23 Aug: 94%23 Aug: 94%23 Aug: 94%23 Aug: 94%23 Aug: 94%23 Aug: 94%28 Aug: 92%28 Aug: 92%28 Aug: 92%28 Aug: 92%28 Aug: 92%23 Aug23 Aug28 Aug
12 recomputations▼ 3 points over the trail