Atlético Madrid → Arsenal · Summer 2026

It did not happen
last read 15% before it was settled
  1. Rumoured
    17 Jun
  2. Talks
    17 Jun
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Catch me up

  1. 17 Junfirst@TEAMtalk: Arsenal have not given up hope of signing Alvarez but claims of an agreement with Atletico Madrid are denied; a swap deal is possible but Arteta reluctant for Gyokeres to be involved
  2. 17 JunJoined by @MirrorFootball
  3. 23 JunAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Arsenal in talks with Atletico Madrid over Julian Alvarez transfer, with swap deal possibility being considered
  4. 14 JulJoined by @JacobsBen
  5. 15 JulReached Agreement
  6. 9 AugDenial@MirrorFootball: Simeone says Atletico Madrid will not sell Julian Alvarez to Arsenal
  7. 13 AugAdvancing@TEAMtalk: Arsenal maintaining contact with Atletico Madrid for Julian Alvarez
  8. 29 AugDenial@TEAMtalk: Julian Alvarez rejected Arsenal

What was actually said

32 posts in 9 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

‼️ The full truths on Victor Osimhen to Arsenal after Julian Alvarez rejected the Gunners Link ⤵️ https://t.co/pM9um2d0vH

claims Rumoured−8 pointsView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancing2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@TEAMtalk had it first, 4mo ago

🔴 Arsenal are reportedly hoping to tempt Atletico Madrid into a stunning swap proposal to get Julian Alvarez through the door 👀 #AFC #AtleticoMadrid https://t.co/8ObS2wiQ7Q

claims Rumoured+1 pointView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    💣 Arsenal are preparing moves for Morgan Rogers AND Julian Alvarez All the details 👇 #AFC https://t.co/PbcemctrzG

Denied outright

Denialone report

"The club took a decision" 🗣️ Diego Simeone has reiterated that Atletico Madrid won't be selling Julian Alvarez to Arsenal https://t.co/6SMji11s1o https://t.co/Yfimjrniji

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral6 reports, led by @TEAMtalk@MirrorFootball had it first, 5mo ago

🔴⚪️🚨 Julian Alvarez has told Mikel Arteta whether or not he's joining Arsenal #AFC Full story 📎 https://t.co/n20FNuiNMN

claims TalksView on X ↗
5 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    Barcelona are set to make one final push to sign Julian Alvarez 🤑 However, Arsenal are in a strong position to strike 🔴 @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/UW8lDAH8Ax

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴⚪️ Julian Alvarez 𝗘𝗫𝗖𝗟𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 🔸 Atletico Madrid hand striker three-tier ultimatum 🔸 Barcelona sale will be blocked at all costs 🔸 Arsenal remain in mix - and could get creative to negotiate deal @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/KqSFEjSeEG #transfers

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    🔴 The Catalan media reveals Barcelona's reaction to Arsenal pushing for Julian Alvarez #afc #fcbarcelona https://t.co/Gc71AwoqOg

  • @MirrorFootball5mo ago ↗

    NEW: Atletico Madrid are 'refusing' to sell Julian Alvarez to Barcelona, giving Arsenal and PSG priority https://t.co/VyfvA3n2yn https://t.co/9S4bXrNCla

  • @MirrorFootball5mo ago ↗

    "The way he plays, I just like him" 👀 Thierry Henry has seemingly endorsed Arsenal's move for Julian Alvarez as 'Barcelona prepare a £117m bid' https://t.co/T20o8HMl17 https://t.co/jCDi6qMML2

Reported as being in talks

Advancing9 reports, led by @MirrorFootball@TEAMtalk had it first, 5mo ago

'No way back' 🚫 Arsenal are now pushing to sign Julian Alvarez after the Atletico Madrid star was handed a brutal ultimatum ✍️ @RyanTaylorSport https://t.co/5NvFBKzKsl https://t.co/bJ3SJmh7Yd

claims TalksView on X ↗
8 other posts, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Julian Alvarez's camp have made an intriguing proposal to Arsenal that includes a Barcelona clause @GraemeBailey | #AFC #FCBarcelona https://t.co/1gCZXoj8ks

  • @MirrorFootball2mo ago ↗

    🆕 Julian Alvarez misses Atletico training AGAIN to open door for Arsenal transfer - but the Gunners face race against time to complete deal | @johncrossmirror https://t.co/lO5ST2IJzV https://t.co/7phXP4OxLi

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🇦🇷 Arsenal are maintaing contact with Atletico Madrid for Julian Alvarez as Barcelona prep a new move 🎯 @GraemeBailey #AFC #FCB https://t.co/cMsQv4dzHL

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    🔥 Arsenal have made significant progress in talks with Julian Alvarez, a report has claimed 🗞️ #AFC https://t.co/vZGKmJ76dK

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    🔴⚪️🚨 Arsenal are confident they'll strike agreements with Julian Alvarez and with Atletico Madrid for the striker's transfer to north London Full details via @GraemeBailey 👇 https://t.co/dlWaVqw80o

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    🔴 Arsenal get massive Julian Alvarez boost after Andrea Berta gets involved @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/JmpUfNWBii

  • @MirrorFootball3mo ago ↗

    Arsenal get two green lights to proceed with Julian Alvarez transfer in record-breaking deal https://t.co/wRCdhZilNf

  • @TEAMtalk5mo ago ↗

    Arsenal still have hope of sealing a dream Julian Alvarez transfer, with talks ongoing 👀 Atletico Madrid could be tempted by a swap deal 😲 @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/DNayQP6n5D

Reported as agreed

Advancingone report

Arsenal news: Julian Alvarez transfer timeline emerges as deal agreed for forward https://t.co/xchsSWgRA3

claims AgreementView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral10 reports, led by @JacobsBen@MirrorFootball had it first, 5mo ago

Julian Alvarez a dream target for Arsenal. Player will assess options post World Cup with Barcelona still in contact with the player.⬇️ https://t.co/1LKwJJkrVw

claims RumouredView on X ↗
9 other posts, 2 other sources on the same claim
  • @JacobsBen4mo ago ↗

    Julian Alvarez a dream target for Arsenal. Player will assess options post World Cup with Barcelona still in contact with the player as well.⬇️ https://t.co/1LKwJJkrVw

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    Arsenal will reportedly bid for Morgan Rogers and remain interested in Julian Alvarez. Which deal should they prioritise? 💸 https://t.co/H856UUrz4d

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    😲 Atletico Madrid are considering selling top Arsenal target Julian Alvarez to fund a move for Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez, a report has claimed 🗞️ #AFC #CFC https://t.co/nYkV9MJo0O

  • @TEAMtalk4mo ago ↗

    ✅ Arsenal have announced the signing of Christos Tzolis, and Julian Alvarez could be next 🔥 #AFC https://t.co/17zIyc4Oxq

  • @TEAMtalk5mo ago ↗

    💥🇦🇷 A journalist has explained why Arsenal and PSG could emerge as strong contenders for Julian Alvarez, despite his Barcelona 'dream' #AFC https://t.co/KGcJtcgDE8

  • @MirrorFootball5mo ago ↗

    Arsenal stance on signing Julian Alvarez after Argentina star drops transfer bombshell ✍️ @RyanTaylorSport https://t.co/9EErRilaDs https://t.co/xSvbuq45MN

  • @MirrorFootball4mo ago ↗

    🚨🚨🚨 Atletico Madrid fire Arsenal brutal warning over signing Julian Alvarez https://t.co/TvKVwkmobC https://t.co/l5Vq6NLSOq

  • @MirrorFootball5mo ago ↗

    Arsenal have been told exactly how they can sign Julian Alvarez 👀 https://t.co/2lyi1UJaE4 https://t.co/Q5QrUGGx98

  • @TEAMtalk3mo ago ↗

    ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Arsenal plan to sign Bruno Guimaraes, Julian Alvarez and Vinicius Jr Full details 📎 https://t.co/WOVCo4vGhq

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

Arsenal have not given up hope of signing Julian Alvarez, but claims of an agreement with Atletico Madrid are wide of the mark ❌ A swap deal IS possible, but Mikel Arteta is reluctant for Viktor Gyokeres to be involved... @GraemeBailey | #AFC https://t.co/My3YeS06bb

claims TalksView on X ↗

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

Julian Alvarez 'suffering' after failed Arsenal transfer as statement made before Liverpool https://t.co/QP2O7LGn8o https://t.co/MKtuWIgDC0

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why it read 15% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+27
TEAMtalk denialBroke ittrust 0.40
−8
TEAMtalk advancingtrust 0.40, 74% faded, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 60%
+1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−5
29 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
15%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: +4 points, after @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk29 Aug: −5 points, after @TEAMtalk, @MirrorFootball, @MirrorFootball, @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @JacobsBen, @JacobsBen, @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @TEAMtalk, @MirrorFootball, @TEAMtalk31 Aug: +3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting23 Aug29 Aug1 Sept
60 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail
  1. −52mo ago@TEAMtalk: Arsenal have not given up hope of signing Alvarez but claims of an agreement with Atletico Madrid are denied; a swap deal is possible but Arteta reluctant for Gyokeres to be involved · @MirrorFootball: Arsenal have been told how they can sign Julian Alvarez · @MirrorFootball: Arsenal moving for Julian Alvarez as Barcelona prepare a £117m bid · @MirrorFootball: Arsenal linked with signing Julian Alvarez following reported transfer comments from the Argentina star · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal could emerge as a strong contender for Julian Alvarez · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal in talks with Atletico Madrid over Julian Alvarez transfer, with swap deal possibility being considered · @MirrorFootball: Atletico Madrid giving Arsenal priority in Julian Alvarez pursuit · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal pursuing Julian Alvarez with involvement of Andrea Berta in negotiations · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal pushing for Julian Alvarez; Barcelona's reaction reported by Catalan media · @JacobsBen: Arsenal are a dream target for Julian Alvarez; player will assess options post World Cup · @JacobsBen: Arsenal target Julian Alvarez; player to assess options after World Cup with Barcelona also in contact · @MirrorFootball: Deal agreed for Julian Alvarez to join Arsenal · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal remain interested in Julian Alvarez · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal are preparing a move for Julian Alvarez · @MirrorFootball: Arsenal linked with Julian Alvarez; Atletico Madrid issues warning over signing · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal have made significant progress in talks with Julian Alvarez · @TEAMtalk: Atletico Madrid considering selling Julian Alvarez to Arsenal to fund a move for Enzo Fernandez · @TEAMtalk: Julian Alvarez could be next to join Arsenal · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal confident of striking agreement with Atletico Madrid for Julian Alvarez's transfer to north London · @MirrorFootball: Arsenal have received two green lights to proceed with a record-breaking transfer for Julian Alvarez · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal plan to sign Julian Alvarez · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal remain in mix and could get creative to negotiate deal · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal in strong position to sign Julian Alvarez · @MirrorFootball: Simeone says Atletico Madrid will not sell Julian Alvarez to Arsenal · @TEAMtalk: Arsenal maintaining contact with Atletico Madrid for Julian Alvarez
  2. +42mo ago@TEAMtalk: Julian Alvarez's camp have made a proposal to Arsenal that includes a Barcelona clause · @TEAMtalk: Julian Alvarez has communicated his decision to Mikel Arteta regarding a potential move to Arsenal · @TEAMtalk: Julian Alvarez rejected Arsenal
  3. +32mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting