1. FC Union Berlin → Hull City · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 2mo ago
No reading before it settled
it was confirmed before the model scored it
  1. Rumoured
    27 Aug
  2. Talks
    27 Aug
  3. Agreement
    27 Aug
  4. Medical
    27 Aug
  5. Done
    1 Sept

Catch me up

  1. 27 Augfirst@Plettigoal: Ilyas Ansah flying to Manchester for medical with Hull City after agreement reached
  2. 1 SeptReached Done
  3. 1 SeptJoined by @FabrizioRomano

What was actually said

3 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancingone report

🟠⚫️ Hull City confirm deal done for Ilyas Ansah from Union Berlin. Here Ilyas with his agents Hasan Cetinkaya and Sahr Senesie from HCM. 21 year old forward will cost fee over €20m as package agreed. https://t.co/rgXiHedoUK

claims Done+15 pointsView on X ↗

Reported at medical stage

Advancing2 reports, led by @Plettigoal

🚨🛫 All agreed as revealed. Ilyas Ansah will fly from Berlin to Manchester this afternoon for his medical with Hull City. https://t.co/ec7kpjJMRX

claims Medical+3 pointsView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @Plettigoal2mo ago ↗+1

    🚨🛩️ EXCL VIDEO: Ilyas Ansah is now travelling by private jet to Manchester with his agent Sahr Senesie (HCM Sports Management) for his medical with Hull City. 🥇Record sale for Union Berlin, with the deal worth up to €24m. Ansah will sign a contract until 2031 and become https://t.co/MOlzFyiYHD

Why it read 77% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+58
Fabrizio Romano advancingBroke ittrust 0.75
+15
Florian Plettenberg advancingBroke ittrust 0.55, 59% faded, counted at 60%
+3
Florian Plettenberg advancingtrust 0.55, 59% faded, repeating (2nd to say it, 50%), counted at 36%
+1
Completion probability
77%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457529 Aug: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: +3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting29 Aug: −65 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Aug: +22 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting31 Aug: −7 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting1 Sept: +45 points, after @FabrizioRomano2 Sept: −4 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting28 Aug30 Aug2 Sept
73 recomputations▼ 17 points over the trail
  1. −652mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. +452mo ago@FabrizioRomano: Hull City confirm deal done for Ilyas Ansah from Union Berlin for over €20m
  3. +222mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  4. −72mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  5. −42mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting