to Arsenal · Permanent · Summer 2026

✓ Confirmedhe is in the squad at his new club · 4mo ago
14%
final reading before it was settled
first reported 4mo agolast moved 4mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    25 Jun
  2. Talks
    25 Jun
  3. Agreement
    25 Jun
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    25 Jun

What was actually said

2 posts in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as done

Advancing2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

Arsenal have SIGNED Piero Hincapie permanently ✅ Mikel Arteta decided he wanted to keep him back in February, as we previously revealed... ⤵️ #AFC https://t.co/AmRMZuu3Ac

claims DoneView on X ↗
1 other post, 1 other source on the same claim
  • @JacobsBen4mo ago ↗

    Arsenal confirm Piero Hincapie’s transfer will become permanent from July 1, as expected. Deal to make the loan permanent never in doubt. Arsenal will pay around €40m.🇪🇨 https://t.co/5ptY72tL1c

Why it read 14% before it settled

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+15
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
2 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
14%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

Not enough history yet. The line appears after a few recalculations.