TransferHype
Winter 2027

Kevin Schade

FW

Brentford → Arsenal · Permanent · Winter 2027

Will Kevin Schade join Arsenal? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 3 posts since 5 Sep.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 20d ago
  1. Rumoured
    5 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

3 posts in 3 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

Arsenal and Liverpool are both showing interest in Brentford star Kevin Schade 🔥 The 24-year-old winger is valued at over £60m by the Bees 🤑 @FrazFletcher | #AFC #LFC https://t.co/XOPcE0jZFc

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Said to be cooling

Coolingone report

Brentford have opened talks with Kevin Schade over a new contract 🐝 Arsenal failed with a summer approach for the winger, while other top European sides are also interested 👀 @FrazFletcher | #AFC #BFC https://t.co/5AdCLNE0zc

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🔴⚪️ Arsenal made an enquiry for Brentford ace Kevin Schade in the summer, we can reveal @GraemeBailey #AFC https://t.co/yDnL23OzGg

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
4 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045757 Sept: −12 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting18 Sept: −9 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting30 Sept: −4 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting7 Oct: −3 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting16 Oct: +3 points, after @TEAMtalk5 Sept30 Sept5 Nov
1472 recomputations▼ 24 points over the trail
  1. −122mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −92mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −41mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  4. −329d agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  5. +320d ago@TEAMtalk: Arsenal showing interest in Brentford winger Kevin Schade, valued at over £60m