TransferHype
Winter 2027

Mauro Icardi

FW

Free agent → Everton · Free · Winter 2027

Will Mauro Icardi join Everton? Unlikely for now: 5%, still a rumour, on 5 posts since 8 Sep.

5%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 2d ago
  1. Rumoured
    8 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

Catch me up

  1. 8 Septfirst@TEAMtalk: Everton linked with free agent Mauro Icardi to address striker needs under David Moyes
  2. 10 SeptReached Talks
  3. 3 NovDenial@DiMarzio: itInter's Marotta states Icardi does not fit into their plans
  4. 3 NovJoined by @DiMarzio

What was actually said

5 posts in 4 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Denied outright

Denialone report

itInter's Marotta states Icardi does not fit into their plans

.@Inter, Marotta: “Dimarco? Abbiamo esercitato la clausola di allungamento. Icardi non rientra nei nostri piani” https://t.co/IcbNq5aUi9

claims Rumoured−7 pointsname shared — matched from contextView on X ↗

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

Everton are interested in signing free agent Mauro Icardi, TEAMtalk can confirm 👀 What a transfer this would be 😍 https://t.co/J385YOq7uB

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

‼️ Everton have been given the chance to sign Mauro Icardi on an immediate free transfer @FrazFletcher #EFC https://t.co/DfPOkjnrIX

claims TalksView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

Everton are being linked with a move for free agent Mauro Icardi to fix David Moyes' striker issues 👀 #EFC https://t.co/4lUaFOdg5Q

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk2mo ago ↗

    Everton are considering a move for Argentinian striker Mauro Icardi, who is available as a free agent following his departure from Galatasaray, we can confirm. https://t.co/J1majEMLgO

Why 5%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+12
Gianluca Di Marzio denialBroke ittrust 0.75
−7
4 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
5%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457510 Sept: +32 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting14 Sept: −7 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination18 Sept: −10 points, with no new post: we re-read the reporting4 Nov: −4 points, after @DiMarzio8 Sept14 Sept5 Nov
1411 recomputations▼ 9 points over the trail
  1. +322mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  2. −102mo agono new post: we re-read the reporting
  3. −72mo agonews on a rival destination
  4. −42d ago@DiMarzio: Inter's Marotta states Icardi does not fit into their plans