Barcelona → Manchester United · Winter 2027
Will Alejandro Balde join Manchester United? Unlikely for now: 12%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 14 Sep.
12%
Unlikely
first reported 2mo agolast moved 5d ago
- Rumoured14 Sept
- Talks—
- Agreement—
- Medical—
- Done—
Contested — 3 clubs
Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.
- Manchester UnitedRumoured12%since 14 Sept · 2 posts
- since 14 Sept · 2 posts
- since 28 Sept · 1 post
What was actually said
2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.
Reported as a live interest
Advancingone reportMentioned, no claim either way
Neutralone reportclaims RumouredView on X ↗
Why 12%
Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.52, 47% faded
+3
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−3
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
12%
Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.