Bournemouth → Real Madrid · Winter 2027

Will Alex Scott join Real Madrid? Unlikely for now: 7%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 4 Oct.

7%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    4 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 4 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

2 posts in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutral2 reports, led by @TEAMtalk

Real Madrid are ready to throw a twist in Liverpool, Chelsea interest in Bournemouth star Alex Scott 😲 @GraemeBailey✍️ | #RMCF #AFCB #LFC #CFC https://t.co/FytGh34MbD

claims RumouredView on X ↗
1 other post on the same claim
  • @TEAMtalk1mo ago ↗

    Real Madrid could join the race for Bournemouth and England midfielder Alex Scott, TEAMtalk can reveal 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 https://t.co/DXNrPU98Wu

Why 7%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+9
Turned down a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
+4
In talks over a new contractreported by @TEAMtalk — about the player, not this move
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−5
6 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
7%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457514 Oct: +4 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination14 Oct: −3 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination22 Oct: −5 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination27 Oct: −3 points, with no post on this move: news on a rival destination4 Oct22 Oct5 Nov
787 recomputations▼ 3 points over the trail
  1. −514d agonews on a rival destination
  2. +422d agonews on a rival destination
  3. −322d agonews on a rival destination
  4. −39d agonews on a rival destination