River Plate → Manchester United · Winter 2027

Will Santiago Beltrán join Manchester United? Unlikely for now: 8%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 24 Sep.

8%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    24 Sept
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🔴📞 Man Utd have reportedly made contact for Argentinian star Santiago Beltran #MUFC https://t.co/3sMjzV0rrd

claims TalksView on X ↗

Why 8%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+9
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
8%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045757 Oct12 Oct5 Nov
708 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail