River Plate → Aston Villa · Winter 2027

Will Santiago Beltrán join Aston Villa? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 7 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 1mo agolast moved 1mo ago
  1. Rumoured
    7 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🇦🇷Former Aston Villa goalkeeper Emi Martinez has recommended fellow Argentina stopper Santiago Beltran to the club, per an insider #AVFC https://t.co/HzfsqpIUw4

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

2045757 Oct15 Oct5 Nov
708 recomputations▼ 3 points over the trail