Manchester United → Atlético Madrid · Winter 2027

Will Lisandro Martínez join Atlético Madrid? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 14 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 23d agolast moved 23d ago
  1. Rumoured
    14 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as a live interest

Advancingone report

🔴 Lisandro Martinez plans to leave Man Utd and fancies a move to Atletico Madrid #MUFC https://t.co/4HEyGalRUF

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457514 Oct18 Oct6 Nov
535 recomputations▼ 10 points over the trail