Manchester United → Barcelona · Winter 2027

Will Lisandro Martínez join Barcelona? Unlikely for now: 13%, still a rumour, on 2 posts since 15 Oct.

13%
Unlikely
first reported 22d agolast moved 7d ago
  1. Rumoured
    15 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

2 posts in 2 claims, grouped by stage and direction.

Reported as being in talks

Advancingone report

🚨 EXCL: Barcelona have made an enquiry over signing Lisandro Martinez! The defender is READY to leave Manchester United, with a switch to the Camp Nou now a genuine possibility ⤵️ @GraemeBailey | #FCB #MUFC https://t.co/VB0f9A8n5S

claims Talks+3 pointsView on X ↗

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🔴 Barcelona now linked with Man Utd defender Lisandro Martinez #MUFC #FCBarcelona https://t.co/dDOU6pAHQL

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 13%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+11
TEAMtalk advancingBroke ittrust 0.52, 60% faded
+3
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
1 further reporteach worth under half a point
Completion probability
13%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457530 Oct: +8 points, after @TEAMtalk15 Oct31 Oct5 Nov
516 recomputations▲ 1 points over the trail
  1. +86d ago@TEAMtalk: Barcelona have made an enquiry over signing Lisandro Martinez from Manchester United; the defender is ready to leave.