TransferHype
Winter 2027

Ismaïla Sarr

FW

Crystal Palace → Manchester United · Winter 2027

Will Ismaïla Sarr join Manchester United? Unlikely for now: 9%, still a rumour, on 1 post since 20 Oct.

9%
Unlikely
first reported 17d agolast moved 17d ago
  1. Rumoured
    20 Oct
  2. Talks
    —
  3. Agreement
    —
  4. Medical
    —
  5. Done
    —

Contested — 2 clubs

Each figure is what one club's own reports support, reduced because he can only sign for one of them. They add up to the chance he moves at all, not to 100.

What was actually said

1 post in 1 claim, grouped by stage and direction.

Mentioned, no claim either way

Neutralone report

🚨🆕 Ismaila Sarr is mulling over a new contract offer from Crystal Palace, amid interest from Manchester United The Red Devils also retain interest in his Palace teammate, Jean-Philippe Mateta ⤵️ @GraemeBailey | #CPFC #MUFC https://t.co/UzLMJahejP

claims RumouredView on X ↗

Why 9%

Starting pointbefore any evidence, from the stage reached
+10
In talks over a new contractreported by @footyinsider247 — about the player, not this move
−1
Competing destinationshe cannot sign for two clubs
−1
3 further reportseach worth under half a point
Completion probability
9%

Each report is weighted by how often its source has been right.

Probability over time

20457520 Oct27 Oct6 Nov
390 recomputations▼ 1 points over the trail